EUMMAS A2S Conference, 19-25 Dubai 2023, United Arab Emirates

 



Government Data Catalog Utilization to Analyze of the Influencing Factors of Drought in Phetchabun Province

 

Porntep Saleepan

College of Industrial Technology, King Mongkut's University of Technology North Bangkok, Bangkok, Thailand

Email : s6403082810051@email.kmutnb.ac.th

Hathairat Ketmaneechairat

College of Industrial Technology, King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok, Bangkok, Thailand.

Email : hathairat.k@cit.kmutnb.ac.th

Sopida Tuammee

College of Industrial Technology, King Mongkut’s University of Technology North Bangkok, Bangkok, Thailand.

Email : sopida.t@cit.kmutnb.ac.th

Darinee  Buddeewong

ASEAN Language and Culture Center, Mukdahan Community College, Mukdahan, Thailand.

Email : darinee@mukcc.ac.th

Lakshmikanth HM

Garden City University, Bangalore, India.

Email : lakshmikanth.hm@gardencity.university

 

Abstract

The purpose of this research is to study and analyze the influencing factors of drought in Phetchabun province. This paper used the dataset of drought problem from the government data catalog of Phetchabun province. The information system is created to find out a cause of drought. The provincial governor of Phenchabun province is importance to solve the drought problem and forward the policy of solving the drought problem at the meeting of the data governance commit of Phetchabun province. In the commission meeting resolution on March 17, 2021 approved the preparation of datasets related to key issues in the region (Pain points). The dataset is collected to solve the drought problem by integration data with government sector. There are several factors used to analyze drought problem such as rainfall, irrigated areas and water sources, groundwater, humidity, soil moisture, land using and drought statistics. There are 26 datasets in the preliminary government data catalog, which are used to prepare the visualization dashboard. The results show that drought is the significant problem and affects to agriculture and economic system in Phetchabun province. The provincial governor and committee use data-driven decision making to solve drought problem.

 

Keywords

drought problem, government data catalog, influencing factors, Phenchabun province

 

JEL classifications

R 10

1.      Introduction

            Nowadays, the government sectors and private sectors are aware of the importance of analyzing and big data utilizing for the decision-making and operations. The Office of the Civil Service Commission in collaboration with the Ministry of Digital for the Economy and Society, the human resource development mechanism for the big data utilizing has been proposed. The target group of this development consists of 3 groups as follows: 1) The creator and system developer. 2) Analyst group, process and display results. 3) Data user group, workgroups. The implement of government's big data project can be divided into 3 tasks: 1. Working on creating and maintaining big data information systems. 2. Data analysis and 3. Bringing the information to use for the decision making (Government Big Data Analysis Framework, 2020)

            The analyzing and displaying of big data, in the paper proposed case study of drought problem and effect in Phetchabun Province. The provincial governor of Phenchabun province is importance to solve the drought problem and forward the policy of solving the drought problem at the meeting of the data governance commit of Phetchabun province. At the meeting of the Phetchabun Provincial Statistics Committee No. 1/2021 on March 17, 2021, it was resolved to approve the preparation of a dataset which related to the key issues in the area (Pain Point). Phetchabun Province Drought Solution is at risk of drought since most of the people of the province are mainly engaged in agriculture which still relies mainly on natural water. Drought is a problem caused by natural fluctuations coupled with human action affecting the shortage of water for agriculture. (Requirements for Dataset Analysis for Key Issues, 2022)

            In the Phetchabun Province Annual Government Action Plan, Year Budget 2022, Volume 2, Project No. 25 Activities: Promote and link marketing of safe/organic agricultural products, processed agriculture and related products. There are the important agricultural products: such as mangoes, tamarinds, ginger, corn, sugarcane, vegetables, medicinal plants, etc. And there are the agricultural products that have been registered as commodities, geographical indication (Geographical Indication: GI). Moreover, Phetchabun sweet tamarind from Khao Farm Leum Puea, Phetchabun raising the level of agricultural products to meet the standards of organic / safe agriculture products such as vegetables, fruits, herbs that are not food, rice and cereal for household consumption and commercial development. There are group of farmers in Phetchabun Province who have established agricultural production plots, namely, 78 large plots, the Center for Agricultural Product Production Efficiency (CAD) and a network of 219 centers, 1,479 community enterprises, 86 Smart Farmer prototypes and 46 Young Smart Farmer prototypes.

            It is absolutely necessary to solve or prevent drought problems that occur or may occur along with finding suitable measures and technologies to bring more land to use. Including the restoration of forest areas. Especially the watershed forest area. It increases the potential of the area to accumulate water in the soil and groundwater planting perennials to add moisture to the dry land area. Therefore, the researcher has taken the dataset from the government data accounting to the system in Case Study of Phetchabun Province, the problem of drought analyzed in order to use the data obtained to study the factors causing the drought. Prepared in the form of diagrams, graphs and charts (Data Visualization) and Prescriptive analytics to support the decision-making in solving drought problems of Phetchabun Province.  

2.      Related Works

In the last decades, climate change is regarded as one of the biggest challenges to the earth because it’s causes and aggravates serious natural hazards including rain storm-floods, forest fire, tsunami, droughts and many others. The drought problem has been addressed by many authors because drought has a devastating effect on the ecology as a potential hydro-meteorological disaster. Due to extensive impacts of drought in past decades at regional and global scales leads to improved capability to cope with drought. Thus, drought prediction plays a key role in drought early warning to mitigate its impacts. At present, there are a lot of researches on drought forecasting in many countries.       In 2020, Han and Singh reviewed forecasting methods for drought and tree mortality under global warming.                 This research examines causative mechanisms for drought and tree mortality, and synthesizes stochastic, statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical-dynamical drought forecasting models as well as theoretical, empirical, and mechanistic tree mortality forecasting models. The results from this research demonstrate that some of the statistical drought forecasting models, which have nonlinear and nonstationary natures, can be merged with dynamical models to compensate for their lack of stochastic structure in order to improve forecasting skills. Afterward, Fung, et al. proposed the improved SVR machine learning models for predicting the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices (SPEI) with a lead time of one month to minimize potential drought impact on oil palm plantations at the downstream of Langat River Basin, Malaysia, which has a tropical climate pattern. However, the potential of developing drought prediction models over Pakistan using three state-of-the-art Machine Learning (ML) techniques; Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and k-Nearest Neighbour (KNN) was investigated by Khan et al. (2020) which based on the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). In 2021, Sundararajan, et al. proposed a contemporary review on drought modeling Using Machine Learning Approaches. They found that the data-driven modelling for forecasting the metrological time series prediction is becoming more powerful and flexible with computational intelligence techniques which include singular vector machines (SVM), support vector regression, random forest, decision tree, logistic regression, Naive Bayes, linear regression, gradient boosting tree, k-nearest neighbours (KNN), the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, the feed-forward neural networks, Markovian chain, Bayesian network, hidden Markov models, and autoregressive moving averages, evolutionary algorithms, deep learning and many more. Furthermore, several researchers have been established more than                 100 drought indices.

Some applications of satellite data are presented in Mishra, et al. (2021) and Mokhtari and Akhoondzadeh (2021).  Mishra, et al. (2021) analyzed the extent of drought in the Rajasthan state of India using vegetation condition index and standardized precipitation index. This study reconfirms that the use of RS technique for drought risk assessment is reliable based on the results obtained in this study. Mokhtari and Akhoondzadeh (2021) described data fusion and machine learning algorithms for Drought forecasting using satellite data. The modeling of the NDVI index monthly was performed by using TRMM rainfall data, SMOS satellite soil moisture, MODIS land surface temperature, snow cover, evapotranspiration with machine learning algorithms such as SVR algorithm, ANN algorithm,                    DT algorithm and RF algorithm. The ANN algorithm has provided higher accuracy than the other three algorithms.

In recent years, data mining has been addressed by several successful applications for drought prediction. For example, Mohammed, et al. (2022) applies data mining for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction in the eastern Mediterranean which has the main goals is to capture agricultural and hydrological drought trends by using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and to assess the applicability of four ML algorithms (bagging (BG), random subspace (RSS), random tree (RT), and random forest (RF)) in predicting drought events based on SPI-3 and SPI-12. The output could be helping decision-makers with drought mitigation plans by using the new four machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, several researchers have studied an artificial neural network in drought prediction; for example, Dikshit, et al. (2022) provided a comprehensive review of the various neural networks that have been traditionally used to forecast droughts in various parts of the world. They examine the most popular and often used neural network-based models and how these have improved their understanding of drought forecasting.

Finally, the machine learning model, drought index and country are used in drought forecasting as shown in Table I.

Table 1 The machine learning model, drought index and country are used in drought forecasting.

Model Used

Drought Index

Country

ANN

SPI, NADI, ARID, NDVI, VCI, NDWI, WSVI, NDDI, SWSI

India, Australia, United States, Ethiopia, Iran, Kenya

ANFIS, Fuzzy Logic

PMDI, SPI

United States, Iran, Turkey

SVM

SPI, SPEI

Australia, Pakistan, India

RF

SPI, SPEI

Australia, United States, China

Hybrid Model

PMDI, SPI, EDI

Australia, United States, Iran,

Deep Learning Model

SPI, SPEI

Australia, India

ANFIS

SPI

Turkey

ANFIS, FFNN

SPI

Turkey, Iran

NN

Palmer

Iceland

RMSNN, DMSNN, ARIMA

Nonlinear Aggregated

Australia

ANN, SVR, WN

SPI

Ethiopia

ANN, ANFI, WA-ANN

SPI

Iran

MLPANN, ANFIS, SVM

SPI

Iran

MLPNN

SPEI

Pakistan

IIS-W-ANN

SWL

Australia

DNN

SPI

United Kingdom

DLNM, ANN, XGB

ONI, SOI, PDO, NAO, AMO, IPO

China

SVR

SPEI

China

WFL

PDSI

USA

WANN, WFL

PMDI

Turkey

BN

ESP_R, SRI, SPI, SPEI, PHDI

Korea, Peninsula

RF

SPI, SMI, SPEI

China, Korea, Australia

HMM

SPI

Korea, Ethiopia

Semi-Markov

SDI

Georgia

 

3.      Methodology

In this section, the methodology for analysis the influencing factors of drought problem in Phetchabun Province is described as following.

3.1. Data Collection and Preparation

            The dataset is download from the government data catalog platform, which is available at the website: https://gdcatalog.go.th/ or https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/. There are 26 datasets in Phetchabun catalog. The list of datasets of Phetchabun Province as shown in Table 1 and the datasets are divided into 5 group as follows:

1)    Water demand group (Agricultural sector, Household sector, Industrial sector) Scope of issue Farmers register, farmer households, target groups register in Khok Nong Na plot.

2)    Water allocation management (Calculate demand for irrigation water storage) scope of issues water supply, water sources, artesian wells, provincial basic information, rainfall, village water supply, zoning of economic crops, farm ponds (mini ponds), cultivated area, irrigation area.

3)    Drought impacts (consumption, agriculture, environment) Scope of issue Farmers, households, agricultural products deteriorated soil, dust, inclement weather.

4)    Spatial data (area affected by drought) natural water source space utilization scope of issues Drought-prone areas, drought-affected areas, recurring drought areas, dams, reservoirs, artesian wells.

5)    Environmental factors Scope of issue Rainfall amount Characteristics of the area Groundwater sources, sea level, soil conditions.

           

Table 2 List of datasets

Scope of issues

Dataset/Data Resource List

URL

note

1. Farmer's register, farmer household

1.1 Farmer registration

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_
10_03

Phetchabun Provincial Agricultural Office

1.2 List of target groups for Khok Nong Na plot

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_
10_15

Phetchabun Provincial Community Development Office

2. Water supply consumption

2.1 Water consumption data

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_01

Provincial Water Supply Authority Phetchabun Branch

3. Water source

3.1 Small irrigation projects

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_05

Phetchabun Irrigation Project

3.2 Medium reservoir information

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_06

Phetchabun Irrigation Project

3.3 
Ann Singh Irrigation Project

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_07

Phetchabun Irrigation Project

4. Artesian wells

4.1 Groundwater well information and groundwater use

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_08

Phetchabun Provincial Office of Natural Resources and Environment

4.2 Groundwater collection

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_09


Phetchabun Provincial Office of Natural Resources and Environment

5. Provincial Basic Information

Provincial Basic Information

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_10

Phetchabun Province

6. Rainfall

Rainfall

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_13

Phetchabun Provincial Meteorological Station

7. Village plumbing

Village Water Supply

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_14

Phetchabun Provincial Local Government Promotion Office

8. Suitability layer (zoning) of economic cropping areas.

Suitability layer (zoning) of economic cropping areas

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_16

Phetchabun Land Development Station

9. Farm pond (miniature pond)

Farm pond (miniature pond)

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_17

Phetchabun Land Development Station

10. Growing saplings

10.1 Annual rice cultivation area, harvested area, yield and average yield per rai

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_19

Phetchabun Provincial Agricultural Office

10.2 Naprang rice cultivation area Harvested land, yield and average yield per acre

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_20

Phetchabun Provincial Agricultural Office

10.3 Rice cultivation area, harvested area, yield and average yield per rai

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_21

Phetchabun Provincial Agricultural Office

10.4 Cultivated area of agronomy, harvested area, yield and average yield per rai

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_22

Phetchabun Provincial Agricultural Office

10.5 Vegetable cultivated area, harvested area, yield and average yield per rai

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_23

Phetchabun Provincial Agricultural Office

10.6 Cultivated areas for fruit trees and perennials Harvested land, yield and average yield per acre

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_24

Phetchabun Provincial Agricultural Office

11. Drought

11.1 Drought-prone areas

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_11

Phetchabun Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Office

11.2 Drought-affected areas

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_12

Phetchabun Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Office

11.3 Repetitive drought areas

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_18

Phetchabun Land Development Station

12. Drought Response Plan

Drought Response Plan

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_02

Phetchabun Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Office

13. Assistance to farmers who suffer from disasters in case of emergencies (crop)

Providing assistance to farmers who have suffered from emergency disasters (crop)

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_04

Phetchabun Provincial Agricultural Office

14. Drought resolution

Visualization supports decision-making to resolve the drought problem of Phetchabun Province.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZTY5ZmYxODctOWE0 New 00MTZjLTllMTItZjgxMzNjODQyNWY 3 IiwidCI6ImY 1 OTZlMjVhLTM5OWEtNDM 4 New1iYWFlLTMxMjZiODA4mmNhNCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3 D%3D

Phetchabun Provincial Statistics Office

15. Drought Response Plan

Drought Response Plan

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/cc45730e-e35a-40e6-a2dd-ec03530570c2/resource/cf786417-0580-41da-a072-a96f2711e71 e/download/02drought-response-plan.pdf

Phetchabun Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Office

16. Weather conditions

Summary of general weather conditions for the year

https://www.tmd.go.th/climate/summaryyearly/2019

Department of Meteorology

 

           

 

3.2. Data Selection

            This research determines the finding of relationships between variables. The data is selected by using the correlation statistics such as drought-prone areas, drought-affected areas, repetitive drought areas, providing assistance to farmers who have suffered from emergency disasters (crop), rainfall and summary of general weather conditions for the year.

3.3. Analysis the Drought Problem

1)      Data of drought risk areas: the drought  risk areas can be divided into 3 levels, surveillance areas, moderate risk areas and high-risk areas.

2)      Dryness: the drought affects agricultural areas. The level of drought that occurs within 10 years divided as follows: <=3 times in10 year-round, >6. 4-5 times in 10 year-round and 4-5 times in 10 year-round.

3)      Rainfall per year:  rain is the important factor in the occurrence of drought in Phetchabun province.

4)      General weather during the year-round: the highest and lowest average temperature in a year-round affected to the agriculture and cattle during the winter season.

 

4.      Results and Analysis

From the section 3, the methodology is explained. The researchers used 26 drought datasets from Phetchabun Province data catalog. The data is selected to solve the drought problem. The drought factors are used to analysis and visualization dashboard. The results can be help for decision making to solve drought problem.

Figure 1 Drought area

            Figure 1 is shown the drought area in the year 2020-2021. The drought area is divided by the districts which there is the most damaged agricultural drought area. In year 2020, the drought area is Chon Dan District, Wichian Buri District and Nam Nao District. In year 2021, the drought area is Si Thep District, Chon Dan District and Bueng Sam Phan District. The Chon Dan District is the most agricultural drought problem area.

 

 

Figure 2 Drought effect

            Figure 2 is shown the drought effect from the land using to agricultural. The total area of 1,257,756.3 square meters has the highest area of sugar cane cultivation equal 368448.37 square meters, followed by rice field cultivation equal 262,942.43 square meters and corn cultivation equal 130,658.86 square meters. The drought levels have an effect in the land using. In the 10 year-round, the drought effect is often frequency with agricultural. The <=3 times in the 10 year-round has effect with land using in the rice field cultivation equal 127,093.59 square meters, followed by the sugar cane cultivation equal 121,352.64 square meters and corn cultivation equal 61,11.26 square meters. The four-five times in the 10 year-round has effect with land using in the sugar cane cultivation equal 211,354.86 square meters, followed by the rice field cultivation equal 110,959.47 square meters and corn cultivation equal 52,619.93 square meters. The six times in the 10 year-round has effect with land using in the sugar cane cultivation equal 35,740.87 square meters, followed by the rice field cultivation equal 24,889.37 square meters and corn cultivation equal 19,018.98 square meters.

Figure3 Rainfall

Table 3 Rainfall

month

Rainfall (MM)

 

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

combine

January

0

0.7

42.2

57.3

27.5

0

0

0

127.7

February

0

12.9

0

3.8

48.2

33.6

0

23.4

121.9

March

4.3

41.7

0

40.9

67.4

56.2

43.1

2.9

252.2

April

57.1

74

26.7

36.6

80.8

64.9

114

235.8

632.8

May

121.8

60.2

138.7

352.2

160.3

134.3

124.3

68.8

1038.8

June

127.6

45.7

141.7

168.1

111.9

75.8

205.9

102.2

851.3

July

162.4

276

191.9

195

172.9

135.9

78.6

216.4

1266.7

August

423.2

87.2

131.6

285.6

190.3

269.8

166

148

1278.5

September

176.3

218.8

290.5

98.1

62.4

71.1

101.1

21.7

863.7

October

84

123.1

49.1

117.8

94.8

37.6

105.1

 

527.5

November

58.9

4.1

28.2

11.4

13.4

1.8

1.3

 

60.2

December

0

28.7

0.8

9.4

2.9

0

0

 

41.8

average

1,215.6

973.1

1,041.4

1,376.2

1,032.8

881

939.4

819.2

 

Average 8 years

1,034.8

           

            Figure 3 illustrated the rainfall.  An overview of the 8-year rainfall from year 2014-2021 has average rainfall of 1,034.8 mm. In year 2017, the highest average rainfall is 1,376.2 mm. The most of the rainfall is 352.2 mm. in May. In 2014, the average rainfall is 1,215.6 mm. The most of the rainfall is 423.2 mm in August. In 2016, the average rainfall is 1,041.4 mm. The most of the rainfall is 290.5 mm in September.

 

Figure 4 Temperature


 

            Figure 4 presented the highest and lowest average temperature in year 2020-2021. In 2020, the average temperature is 27.6 degrees Celsius. The highest average temperature is 30.9. Degrees Celsius in May. The average temperature is 30.6 degrees Celsius in April. The lowest average temperature is 23.30 degrees Celsius in December. In 2021, the average temperature is 26.9 degrees Celsius. The highest average temperature is 29.8 degrees Celsius in May. The average temperature is 28.7 degrees Celsius in June. The lowest average temperature is 22.7 degrees Celsius in December and January.

5.      Conclusion

            In this paper, the study and analyze the influencing factors of drought in Phetchabun province is proposed.   The dataset of drought problem is download from the government data catalog of Phetchabun province. There are several factors used to analyze drought problem such as drought area, drought effect, land using and temperature. The data is used to prepare the visualization dashboard. The results show that drought is the significant problem and affects to agriculture and economic system in Phetchabun province. The provincial governor and committee use data-driven decision making to solve drought problem. In the future work, the researcher will be use the machine learning model for solve the drought problem.

6.      References

Government Big Data Analysis and Management Institute ( GBDi ) . (2021). [ Online ]. Book Public sector big data analytics framework. [ Retrieved May 15, 2022 ]. From https://gbdi.depa.or.th/news/government-big-data-analytics-framework/

Provincial Development Strategy and Information Group Phetchabun Provincial Office (2017). [ Online ]. Strategy for the development of the province. [ Retrieved May 15, 2022 ]. From https://www.phetchabun.go.th/main/  

Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council. (2021). [ Online ]. (Draft) National Economic and Social Development Plan No. 13 ( B.E. 2566-2570). [ Retrieved May 15, 2022 ]. From https://www.nesdc.go.th/main.php?filename=develop_issue

statistical office Phetchabun Province . ( 2022). [ Online]. Statistical data . [Retrieved May 15 , 2022]. From http://phchabun.old.nso.go.th/nso/project/search/index.jsp?province_id=55

Government Accounting System . (2022). [Online]. Accounting Information of Northern Region. [Retrieved May 15, 2022]. From https://gdhelppage.nso.go.th/p01_catalog16.html

Fung, K. F., Huang, Y. F., Koo, C. H., Mirzaei, M. (2020). Improved SVR machine learning models for agricultural drought prediction at downstream of Langat River Basin, Malaysia. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 11(4), 1383–1398. DOI 10.2166/wcc.2019.295.

Han, J., Singh, V. P. (2020). Forecasting of droughts and tree mortality under global warming: A review of causative mechanisms and modeling methods. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 11(3), 600–632. DOI 10.2166/wcc.2020.239.

Khan, N., Sachindra, D.A., Shahid, S., Ahmed, K., Shiru, M.S., Nawaz, N. (2020). Prediction of Droughts over Pakistan Using Machine Learning Algorithms. Advances in Water Resources, 139(2020), 1-15. DOI 10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103562.

Sundararajan, K., Garg, L., Srinivasan K., Bashir A. K., Kaliappan, J., Ganapathy, G. P., Selvaraj, S. K. and Meena, T. (2021). A Contemporary Review on Drought Modeling Using Machine Learning Approaches, Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, 128(2), 447-487. DOI 10.32604/cmes.2021.015528.

Mishra, D., Goswami, S., Matin, S. and Sarup, J. (2021). Analyzing the extent of drought in the Rajasthan state of India using vegetation condition index and standardized precipitation index, Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 8:601–610. DOI 10.1007/s40808-021-01102-x.

Mokhtari, R., Akhoondzadeh, M. (2021). Data fusion and machine learning algorithms for drought forecasting using satellite data. Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, 46(4), 231–246. DOI 10.22059/jesphys.2020.299445.1007199.

Mohammed, S., Elbeltagi, A., Bashir, B., Alsafadi, K., Alsilibe, F., Alsalman, A., Zeraatpisheh, M., Sz´eles, A. and  Hars´anyi, E. (2022). A comparative analysis of data mining techniques for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction in the eastern Mediterranean, Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 197 (2022), 1-19. DOI 10.1016/j.compag.2022.106925.

Dikshit, A., Pradhan B. and Santosh, M. (2022). Artificial neural networks in drought prediction in the 21st century  –A scientometric analysis, Applied Soft Computing 114 (2022), 1-17. DOI 10.1016/j.asoc.2021.108080.

 

1.      Introduction

            Nowadays, the government sectors and private sectors are aware of the importance of analyzing and big data utilizing for the decision-making and operations. The Office of the Civil Service Commission in collaboration with the Ministry of Digital for the Economy and Society, the human resource development mechanism for the big data utilizing has been proposed. The target group of this development consists of 3 groups as follows: 1) The creator and system developer. 2) Analyst group, process and display results. 3) Data user group, workgroups. The implement of government's big data project can be divided into 3 tasks: 1. Working on creating and maintaining big data information systems. 2. Data analysis and 3. Bringing the information to use for the decision making (Government Big Data Analysis Framework, 2020)

            The analyzing and displaying of big data, in the paper proposed case study of drought problem and effect in Phetchabun Province. The provincial governor of Phenchabun province is importance to solve the drought problem and forward the policy of solving the drought problem at the meeting of the data governance commit of Phetchabun province. At the meeting of the Phetchabun Provincial Statistics Committee No. 1/2021 on March 17, 2021, it was resolved to approve the preparation of a dataset which related to the key issues in the area (Pain Point). Phetchabun Province Drought Solution is at risk of drought since most of the people of the province are mainly engaged in agriculture which still relies mainly on natural water. Drought is a problem caused by natural fluctuations coupled with human action affecting the shortage of water for agriculture. (Requirements for Dataset Analysis for Key Issues, 2022)

            In the Phetchabun Province Annual Government Action Plan, Year Budget 2022, Volume 2, Project No. 25 Activities: Promote and link marketing of safe/organic agricultural products, processed agriculture and related products. There are the important agricultural products: such as mangoes, tamarinds, ginger, corn, sugarcane, vegetables, medicinal plants, etc. And there are the agricultural products that have been registered as commodities, geographical indication (Geographical Indication: GI). Moreover, Phetchabun sweet tamarind from Khao Farm Leum Puea, Phetchabun raising the level of agricultural products to meet the standards of organic / safe agriculture products such as vegetables, fruits, herbs that are not food, rice and cereal for household consumption and commercial development. There are group of farmers in Phetchabun Province who have established agricultural production plots, namely, 78 large plots, the Center for Agricultural Product Production Efficiency (CAD) and a network of 219 centers, 1,479 community enterprises, 86 Smart Farmer prototypes and 46 Young Smart Farmer prototypes.

            It is absolutely necessary to solve or prevent drought problems that occur or may occur along with finding suitable measures and technologies to bring more land to use. Including the restoration of forest areas. Especially the watershed forest area. It increases the potential of the area to accumulate water in the soil and groundwater planting perennials to add moisture to the dry land area. Therefore, the researcher has taken the dataset from the government data accounting to the system in Case Study of Phetchabun Province, the problem of drought analyzed in order to use the data obtained to study the factors causing the drought. Prepared in the form of diagrams, graphs and charts (Data Visualization) and Prescriptive analytics to support the decision-making in solving drought problems of Phetchabun Province.  

2.      Related Works

In the last decades, climate change is regarded as one of the biggest challenges to the earth because it’s causes and aggravates serious natural hazards including rain storm-floods, forest fire, tsunami, droughts and many others. The drought problem has been addressed by many authors because drought has a devastating effect on the ecology as a potential hydro-meteorological disaster. Due to extensive impacts of drought in past decades at regional and global scales leads to improved capability to cope with drought. Thus, drought prediction plays a key role in drought early warning to mitigate its impacts. At present, there are a lot of researches on drought forecasting in many countries.       In 2020, Han and Singh reviewed forecasting methods for drought and tree mortality under global warming.                 This research examines causative mechanisms for drought and tree mortality, and synthesizes stochastic, statistical, dynamical, and hybrid statistical-dynamical drought forecasting models as well as theoretical, empirical, and mechanistic tree mortality forecasting models. The results from this research demonstrate that some of the statistical drought forecasting models, which have nonlinear and nonstationary natures, can be merged with dynamical models to compensate for their lack of stochastic structure in order to improve forecasting skills. Afterward, Fung, et al. proposed the improved SVR machine learning models for predicting the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration indices (SPEI) with a lead time of one month to minimize potential drought impact on oil palm plantations at the downstream of Langat River Basin, Malaysia, which has a tropical climate pattern. However, the potential of developing drought prediction models over Pakistan using three state-of-the-art Machine Learning (ML) techniques; Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and k-Nearest Neighbour (KNN) was investigated by Khan et al. (2020) which based on the Standardized Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). In 2021, Sundararajan, et al. proposed a contemporary review on drought modeling Using Machine Learning Approaches. They found that the data-driven modelling for forecasting the metrological time series prediction is becoming more powerful and flexible with computational intelligence techniques which include singular vector machines (SVM), support vector regression, random forest, decision tree, logistic regression, Naive Bayes, linear regression, gradient boosting tree, k-nearest neighbours (KNN), the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, the feed-forward neural networks, Markovian chain, Bayesian network, hidden Markov models, and autoregressive moving averages, evolutionary algorithms, deep learning and many more. Furthermore, several researchers have been established more than                 100 drought indices.

Some applications of satellite data are presented in Mishra, et al. (2021) and Mokhtari and Akhoondzadeh (2021).  Mishra, et al. (2021) analyzed the extent of drought in the Rajasthan state of India using vegetation condition index and standardized precipitation index. This study reconfirms that the use of RS technique for drought risk assessment is reliable based on the results obtained in this study. Mokhtari and Akhoondzadeh (2021) described data fusion and machine learning algorithms for Drought forecasting using satellite data. The modeling of the NDVI index monthly was performed by using TRMM rainfall data, SMOS satellite soil moisture, MODIS land surface temperature, snow cover, evapotranspiration with machine learning algorithms such as SVR algorithm, ANN algorithm,                    DT algorithm and RF algorithm. The ANN algorithm has provided higher accuracy than the other three algorithms.

In recent years, data mining has been addressed by several successful applications for drought prediction. For example, Mohammed, et al. (2022) applies data mining for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction in the eastern Mediterranean which has the main goals is to capture agricultural and hydrological drought trends by using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and to assess the applicability of four ML algorithms (bagging (BG), random subspace (RSS), random tree (RT), and random forest (RF)) in predicting drought events based on SPI-3 and SPI-12. The output could be helping decision-makers with drought mitigation plans by using the new four machine learning algorithms. Furthermore, several researchers have studied an artificial neural network in drought prediction; for example, Dikshit, et al. (2022) provided a comprehensive review of the various neural networks that have been traditionally used to forecast droughts in various parts of the world. They examine the most popular and often used neural network-based models and how these have improved their understanding of drought forecasting.

Finally, the machine learning model, drought index and country are used in drought forecasting as shown in Table I.

Table 1 The machine learning model, drought index and country are used in drought forecasting.

Model Used

Drought Index

Country

ANN

SPI, NADI, ARID, NDVI, VCI, NDWI, WSVI, NDDI, SWSI

India, Australia, United States, Ethiopia, Iran, Kenya

ANFIS, Fuzzy Logic

PMDI, SPI

United States, Iran, Turkey

SVM

SPI, SPEI

Australia, Pakistan, India

RF

SPI, SPEI

Australia, United States, China

Hybrid Model

PMDI, SPI, EDI

Australia, United States, Iran,

Deep Learning Model

SPI, SPEI

Australia, India

ANFIS

SPI

Turkey

ANFIS, FFNN

SPI

Turkey, Iran

NN

Palmer

Iceland

RMSNN, DMSNN, ARIMA

Nonlinear Aggregated

Australia

ANN, SVR, WN

SPI

Ethiopia

ANN, ANFI, WA-ANN

SPI

Iran

MLPANN, ANFIS, SVM

SPI

Iran

MLPNN

SPEI

Pakistan

IIS-W-ANN

SWL

Australia

DNN

SPI

United Kingdom

DLNM, ANN, XGB

ONI, SOI, PDO, NAO, AMO, IPO

China

SVR

SPEI

China

WFL

PDSI

USA

WANN, WFL

PMDI

Turkey

BN

ESP_R, SRI, SPI, SPEI, PHDI

Korea, Peninsula

RF

SPI, SMI, SPEI

China, Korea, Australia

HMM

SPI

Korea, Ethiopia

Semi-Markov

SDI

Georgia

 

3.      Methodology

In this section, the methodology for analysis the influencing factors of drought problem in Phetchabun Province is described as following.

3.1. Data Collection and Preparation

            The dataset is download from the government data catalog platform, which is available at the website: https://gdcatalog.go.th/ or https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/. There are 26 datasets in Phetchabun catalog. The list of datasets of Phetchabun Province as shown in Table 1 and the datasets are divided into 5 group as follows:

1)    Water demand group (Agricultural sector, Household sector, Industrial sector) Scope of issue Farmers register, farmer households, target groups register in Khok Nong Na plot.

2)    Water allocation management (Calculate demand for irrigation water storage) scope of issues water supply, water sources, artesian wells, provincial basic information, rainfall, village water supply, zoning of economic crops, farm ponds (mini ponds), cultivated area, irrigation area.

3)    Drought impacts (consumption, agriculture, environment) Scope of issue Farmers, households, agricultural products deteriorated soil, dust, inclement weather.

4)    Spatial data (area affected by drought) natural water source space utilization scope of issues Drought-prone areas, drought-affected areas, recurring drought areas, dams, reservoirs, artesian wells.

5)    Environmental factors Scope of issue Rainfall amount Characteristics of the area Groundwater sources, sea level, soil conditions.

           

Table 2 List of datasets

Scope of issues

Dataset/Data Resource List

URL

note

1. Farmer's register, farmer household

1.1 Farmer registration

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_
10_03

Phetchabun Provincial Agricultural Office

1.2 List of target groups for Khok Nong Na plot

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_
10_15

Phetchabun Provincial Community Development Office

2. Water supply consumption

2.1 Water consumption data

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_01

Provincial Water Supply Authority Phetchabun Branch

3. Water source

3.1 Small irrigation projects

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_05

Phetchabun Irrigation Project

3.2 Medium reservoir information

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_06

Phetchabun Irrigation Project

3.3 
Ann Singh Irrigation Project

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_07

Phetchabun Irrigation Project

4. Artesian wells

4.1 Groundwater well information and groundwater use

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_08

Phetchabun Provincial Office of Natural Resources and Environment

4.2 Groundwater collection

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_09


Phetchabun Provincial Office of Natural Resources and Environment

5. Provincial Basic Information

Provincial Basic Information

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_10

Phetchabun Province

6. Rainfall

Rainfall

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_13

Phetchabun Provincial Meteorological Station

7. Village plumbing

Village Water Supply

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_14

Phetchabun Provincial Local Government Promotion Office

8. Suitability layer (zoning) of economic cropping areas.

Suitability layer (zoning) of economic cropping areas

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_16

Phetchabun Land Development Station

9. Farm pond (miniature pond)

Farm pond (miniature pond)

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_17

Phetchabun Land Development Station

10. Growing saplings

10.1 Annual rice cultivation area, harvested area, yield and average yield per rai

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_19

Phetchabun Provincial Agricultural Office

10.2 Naprang rice cultivation area Harvested land, yield and average yield per acre

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_20

Phetchabun Provincial Agricultural Office

10.3 Rice cultivation area, harvested area, yield and average yield per rai

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_21

Phetchabun Provincial Agricultural Office

10.4 Cultivated area of agronomy, harvested area, yield and average yield per rai

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_22

Phetchabun Provincial Agricultural Office

10.5 Vegetable cultivated area, harvested area, yield and average yield per rai

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_23

Phetchabun Provincial Agricultural Office

10.6 Cultivated areas for fruit trees and perennials Harvested land, yield and average yield per acre

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_24

Phetchabun Provincial Agricultural Office

11. Drought

11.1 Drought-prone areas

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_11

Phetchabun Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Office

11.2 Drought-affected areas

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_12

Phetchabun Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Office

11.3 Repetitive drought areas

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_18

Phetchabun Land Development Station

12. Drought Response Plan

Drought Response Plan

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_02

Phetchabun Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Office

13. Assistance to farmers who suffer from disasters in case of emergencies (crop)

Providing assistance to farmers who have suffered from emergency disasters (crop)

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/dataset_10_04

Phetchabun Provincial Agricultural Office

14. Drought resolution

Visualization supports decision-making to resolve the drought problem of Phetchabun Province.

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZTY5ZmYxODctOWE0 New 00MTZjLTllMTItZjgxMzNjODQyNWY 3 IiwidCI6ImY 1 OTZlMjVhLTM5OWEtNDM 4 New1iYWFlLTMxMjZiODA4mmNhNCIsImMiOjEwfQ%3 D%3D

Phetchabun Provincial Statistics Office

15. Drought Response Plan

Drought Response Plan

https://phetchabun.gdcatalog.go.th/dataset/cc45730e-e35a-40e6-a2dd-ec03530570c2/resource/cf786417-0580-41da-a072-a96f2711e71 e/download/02drought-response-plan.pdf

Phetchabun Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Office

16. Weather conditions

Summary of general weather conditions for the year

https://www.tmd.go.th/climate/summaryyearly/2019

Department of Meteorology

 

           

 

3.2. Data Selection

            This research determines the finding of relationships between variables. The data is selected by using the correlation statistics such as drought-prone areas, drought-affected areas, repetitive drought areas, providing assistance to farmers who have suffered from emergency disasters (crop), rainfall and summary of general weather conditions for the year.

3.3. Analysis the Drought Problem

1)      Data of drought risk areas: the drought  risk areas can be divided into 3 levels, surveillance areas, moderate risk areas and high-risk areas.

2)      Dryness: the drought affects agricultural areas. The level of drought that occurs within 10 years divided as follows: <=3 times in10 year-round, >6. 4-5 times in 10 year-round and 4-5 times in 10 year-round.

3)      Rainfall per year:  rain is the important factor in the occurrence of drought in Phetchabun province.

4)      General weather during the year-round: the highest and lowest average temperature in a year-round affected to the agriculture and cattle during the winter season.

 

4.      Results and Analysis

From the section 3, the methodology is explained. The researchers used 26 drought datasets from Phetchabun Province data catalog. The data is selected to solve the drought problem. The drought factors are used to analysis and visualization dashboard. The results can be help for decision making to solve drought problem.

Figure 1 Drought area

            Figure 1 is shown the drought area in the year 2020-2021. The drought area is divided by the districts which there is the most damaged agricultural drought area. In year 2020, the drought area is Chon Dan District, Wichian Buri District and Nam Nao District. In year 2021, the drought area is Si Thep District, Chon Dan District and Bueng Sam Phan District. The Chon Dan District is the most agricultural drought problem area.

 

 

Figure 2 Drought effect

            Figure 2 is shown the drought effect from the land using to agricultural. The total area of 1,257,756.3 square meters has the highest area of sugar cane cultivation equal 368448.37 square meters, followed by rice field cultivation equal 262,942.43 square meters and corn cultivation equal 130,658.86 square meters. The drought levels have an effect in the land using. In the 10 year-round, the drought effect is often frequency with agricultural. The <=3 times in the 10 year-round has effect with land using in the rice field cultivation equal 127,093.59 square meters, followed by the sugar cane cultivation equal 121,352.64 square meters and corn cultivation equal 61,11.26 square meters. The four-five times in the 10 year-round has effect with land using in the sugar cane cultivation equal 211,354.86 square meters, followed by the rice field cultivation equal 110,959.47 square meters and corn cultivation equal 52,619.93 square meters. The six times in the 10 year-round has effect with land using in the sugar cane cultivation equal 35,740.87 square meters, followed by the rice field cultivation equal 24,889.37 square meters and corn cultivation equal 19,018.98 square meters.

Figure3 Rainfall

Table 3 Rainfall

month

Rainfall (MM)

 

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

combine

January

0

0.7

42.2

57.3

27.5

0

0

0

127.7

February

0

12.9

0

3.8

48.2

33.6

0

23.4

121.9

March

4.3

41.7

0

40.9

67.4

56.2

43.1

2.9

252.2

April

57.1

74

26.7

36.6

80.8

64.9

114

235.8

632.8

May

121.8

60.2

138.7

352.2

160.3

134.3

124.3

68.8

1038.8

June

127.6

45.7

141.7

168.1

111.9

75.8

205.9

102.2

851.3

July

162.4

276

191.9

195

172.9

135.9

78.6

216.4

1266.7

August

423.2

87.2

131.6

285.6

190.3

269.8

166

148

1278.5

September

176.3

218.8

290.5

98.1

62.4

71.1

101.1

21.7

863.7

October

84

123.1

49.1

117.8

94.8

37.6

105.1

 

527.5

November

58.9

4.1

28.2

11.4

13.4

1.8

1.3

 

60.2

December

0

28.7

0.8

9.4

2.9

0

0

 

41.8

average

1,215.6

973.1

1,041.4

1,376.2

1,032.8

881

939.4

819.2

 

Average 8 years

1,034.8

           

            Figure 3 illustrated the rainfall.  An overview of the 8-year rainfall from year 2014-2021 has average rainfall of 1,034.8 mm. In year 2017, the highest average rainfall is 1,376.2 mm. The most of the rainfall is 352.2 mm. in May. In 2014, the average rainfall is 1,215.6 mm. The most of the rainfall is 423.2 mm in August. In 2016, the average rainfall is 1,041.4 mm. The most of the rainfall is 290.5 mm in September.

 

Figure 4 Temperature


 

            Figure 4 presented the highest and lowest average temperature in year 2020-2021. In 2020, the average temperature is 27.6 degrees Celsius. The highest average temperature is 30.9. Degrees Celsius in May. The average temperature is 30.6 degrees Celsius in April. The lowest average temperature is 23.30 degrees Celsius in December. In 2021, the average temperature is 26.9 degrees Celsius. The highest average temperature is 29.8 degrees Celsius in May. The average temperature is 28.7 degrees Celsius in June. The lowest average temperature is 22.7 degrees Celsius in December and January.

5.      Conclusion

            In this paper, the study and analyze the influencing factors of drought in Phetchabun province is proposed.   The dataset of drought problem is download from the government data catalog of Phetchabun province. There are several factors used to analyze drought problem such as drought area, drought effect, land using and temperature. The data is used to prepare the visualization dashboard. The results show that drought is the significant problem and affects to agriculture and economic system in Phetchabun province. The provincial governor and committee use data-driven decision making to solve drought problem. In the future work, the researcher will be use the machine learning model for solve the drought problem.

6.      References

Government Big Data Analysis and Management Institute ( GBDi ) . (2021). [ Online ]. Book Public sector big data analytics framework. [ Retrieved May 15, 2022 ]. From https://gbdi.depa.or.th/news/government-big-data-analytics-framework/

Provincial Development Strategy and Information Group Phetchabun Provincial Office (2017). [ Online ]. Strategy for the development of the province. [ Retrieved May 15, 2022 ]. From https://www.phetchabun.go.th/main/  

Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council. (2021). [ Online ]. (Draft) National Economic and Social Development Plan No. 13 ( B.E. 2566-2570). [ Retrieved May 15, 2022 ]. From https://www.nesdc.go.th/main.php?filename=develop_issue

statistical office Phetchabun Province . ( 2022). [ Online]. Statistical data . [Retrieved May 15 , 2022]. From http://phchabun.old.nso.go.th/nso/project/search/index.jsp?province_id=55

Government Accounting System . (2022). [Online]. Accounting Information of Northern Region. [Retrieved May 15, 2022]. From https://gdhelppage.nso.go.th/p01_catalog16.html

Fung, K. F., Huang, Y. F., Koo, C. H., Mirzaei, M. (2020). Improved SVR machine learning models for agricultural drought prediction at downstream of Langat River Basin, Malaysia. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 11(4), 1383–1398. DOI 10.2166/wcc.2019.295.

Han, J., Singh, V. P. (2020). Forecasting of droughts and tree mortality under global warming: A review of causative mechanisms and modeling methods. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 11(3), 600–632. DOI 10.2166/wcc.2020.239.

Khan, N., Sachindra, D.A., Shahid, S., Ahmed, K., Shiru, M.S., Nawaz, N. (2020). Prediction of Droughts over Pakistan Using Machine Learning Algorithms. Advances in Water Resources, 139(2020), 1-15. DOI 10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103562.

Sundararajan, K., Garg, L., Srinivasan K., Bashir A. K., Kaliappan, J., Ganapathy, G. P., Selvaraj, S. K. and Meena, T. (2021). A Contemporary Review on Drought Modeling Using Machine Learning Approaches, Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences, 128(2), 447-487. DOI 10.32604/cmes.2021.015528.

Mishra, D., Goswami, S., Matin, S. and Sarup, J. (2021). Analyzing the extent of drought in the Rajasthan state of India using vegetation condition index and standardized precipitation index, Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 8:601–610. DOI 10.1007/s40808-021-01102-x.

Mokhtari, R., Akhoondzadeh, M. (2021). Data fusion and machine learning algorithms for drought forecasting using satellite data. Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, 46(4), 231–246. DOI 10.22059/jesphys.2020.299445.1007199.

Mohammed, S., Elbeltagi, A., Bashir, B., Alsafadi, K., Alsilibe, F., Alsalman, A., Zeraatpisheh, M., Sz´eles, A. and  Hars´anyi, E. (2022). A comparative analysis of data mining techniques for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction in the eastern Mediterranean, Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, 197 (2022), 1-19. DOI 10.1016/j.compag.2022.106925.

Dikshit, A., Pradhan B. and Santosh, M. (2022). Artificial neural networks in drought prediction in the 21st century  –A scientometric analysis, Applied Soft Computing 114 (2022), 1-17. DOI 10.1016/j.asoc.2021.108080.

 


ความคิดเห็น

โพสต์ยอดนิยมจากบล็อกนี้

Research Project 2021-2023

Research Paper 2021